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Government responses to COVID-19 in Australia have received, by and large, bipartisan support. An exception, it seems, is the imposition of restrictions on interstate movement. State borders have become a lightning rod for political friction and . With elections in the frame, this has escalated into apparent 鈥溾��.
Going hard on borders
The latest salvos follow alarming coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria and, in lesser numbers, Greater Sydney.
After partially reopening Queensland鈥檚 borders mere weeks ago, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk surprised some by reimposing a 鈥渉ard鈥� effective from the weekend. As case numbers ballooned in Melbourne and instances occurred of infected returning travellers 鈥渂reaching鈥� quarantine measures, many Queenslanders anticipated toughened restrictions 鈥� and indeed welcomed them.
It should be remembered that the Queensland government鈥檚 generally successful handling of the pandemic crisis, including its readiness to close borders, enjoys . Some wondered why this latest border closure as well, where there are no active cases.
But a hard line on borders to effectively 鈥減ut Queenslanders鈥� health first鈥� is a . Support for the closures even came from a possibly unexpected source in Gold Coast Mayor . Amid heightened anxiety, residents here will take comfort from the seeming security of 鈥溾��.
Election fever in the air
In Queensland, pandemic conditions currently favour the incumbent premier 鈥� in stark comparison to Daniel Andrews鈥檚 situation in Victoria. With community transmission largely under control, Palaszczuk has played a steady hand in easing lockdown restrictions, informed by her .
While impacts on the state鈥檚 economy and unemployment levels remain worrying 鈥� and potentially politically damaging 鈥� everything is viewed through the prism of the government鈥檚 ability to manage the crisis. These circumstances seemingly lend themselves to taking an 鈥渁bundance鈥� of caution.
This has in turn invited criticism from some business quarters, but it鈥檚 an approach that suits both the times and the premier鈥檚 style.
A recent coronavirus outbreak in Brisbane鈥檚 south tested the premier鈥檚 leadership and her government鈥檚 responsiveness, providing a reminder of the disease鈥檚 unpredictability. Subsequently, taking a resolute stance on border measures, in defiance especially of naysayers from southern states and , will only boost Palaszczuk鈥檚 standing in her (often parochial) home state. With an election less than 12 weeks away, there are, variously, more rewards than risks in the protection of Queenslanders鈥� health.
But as that election nears, both the premier and her LNP counterpart, Deb Frecklington, will look to turn circumstances more clearly to their political advantage. Opinion polls show the LNP holding a slim 鈥� yet, perhaps significantly, Palaszczuk has a distinct lead as voters鈥� preferred premier.
The premier adopting a position of 鈥榮trength鈥�
Many in Queensland see Palaszczuk as personable and a 鈥渟afe pair of hands鈥�. This reassuring attribute might be well suited to these uncertain times.
With Palaszczuk鈥檚 leadership stocks running high, Queensland voters can anticipate a presidential-style election campaign come October. Messaging has already surfaced as a 鈥渟trong premier鈥�, suggesting she鈥檚 the leader to make 鈥渟trong decisions鈥�. But Labor may well tread this path warily, remembering what befell Campbell Newman, the last Queensland premier who on 鈥渟trong鈥� characteristics.
Admittedly, accentuating 鈥渟trength鈥� counters claims of being indecisive or too cautious, critiques that have dogged until now. This approach could work well politically, so long as events 鈥� or potentially the federal government 鈥� don鈥檛 turn against the premier鈥檚 handling of the pandemic. If there鈥檚 a heightened element to the crisis in coming weeks, the situation could reverse quickly for Palaszczuk鈥檚 government, leaving the premier wearing much of the blow-back.
Even Anna Bligh鈥檚 during the destructive 2010-11 cyclones and floods in Queensland didn鈥檛 translate to a long-term boost in support. But the looming state election is a more short-term prospect. The pandemic will remain front and centre, with Palaszczuk鈥檚 crisis management still very much .
When to oppose in opposition?
The spread of COVID-19 has presented a political challenge for the opposition in Queensland.
The LNP鈥檚 past criticism of the Palaszczuk government over the state鈥檚 border closure has come back to bite it. Echoing their leader, throughout June several LNP MPs (supported by the prime minister no less) for the border鈥檚 reopening. Events since, understandably, have forced an about-face from LNP figures. They鈥檙e now advocating 鈥渢ougher鈥� border measures at the risk of .
Regardless, the opposition finds itself 鈥� ironically 鈥� having to be cautious about the limits of striking a point of difference. This much is obvious in Frecklington鈥檚 newly struck tone of with the government鈥檚 border position. This is a bind opposition parties are , a hard reality especially in and with elections nearing.
The LNP, having gambled on criticising the government鈥檚 border restrictions, now wears the fallout. Labor has pounced on the opportunity, in early signs of a de facto election campaign. have highlighted how Frecklington 鈥� who鈥檚 had to endure her own party鈥檚 鈥� called for Queensland鈥檚 borders to be opened 鈥渆arly鈥� on dozens of occasions.
Queenslanders can expect to be reminded of this 鈥渞ashness鈥� from now until the election. The LNP, meanwhile, must identify issues not necessarily coronavirus-related 鈥� such as law and order or water security in regional Queensland 鈥� to provide it some .
Palaszczuk in the driver鈥檚 seat
Notably, for ten of the past 13 years, a woman has been premier of Queensland. Whichever major party wins October鈥檚 election, a woman will be leader for (likely) a further four years. With Palaszczuk emphasising 鈥� in the face of LNP criticisms 鈥� that 鈥渢he lady鈥檚 not for turning鈥� from her border stance, she gives herself every chance to remain that leader.
, Research Associate, School of Political Science & International Studies,
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Image credit: Chris Hyde/Getty Images
