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As with other parts of the global economy, COVID-19 has led to rapid changes in transport trends. The chart below shows overall trends for driving, walking and public transport for Australia as of July 17.
Unfortunately, the current lockdown of metropolitan Melbourne, which is at odds with trends in Australia鈥檚 other biggest cities, is skewing the national average. These data, provided by , are available for many cities, regions and countries around the world.
Updated daily, the data provide a measure of trends in transport use since early January 2020. The chart below summarises the changes since then in driving, walking and public transport for Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.
With the exception of Melbourne, driving has recovered and is now noticeably above pre-pandemic levels.
Public transport use is still well below baseline levels. It is recovering 鈥� again except for Melbourne 鈥� but slowly. The exception is Adelaide where public transport is only slightly below the baseline.
Walking is doing better than public transport. Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are slightly above the baseline, while Sydney is slightly below it. Melbourne is still down by about a half.
How badly did lockdowns affect travel?
The chart below shows the largest declines in driving, walking and public transport were recorded in the period April 4-11. Most of the lowest values coincided with Easter holidays. However, regardless of the holiday, this was the period when levels of transport use were lowest.
The declines are fairly consistent across the cities. For driving, the declines were around 70%. For walking, the declines ranged from 65% to 80%. Public transport recorded declines of 80-89%.
The recovery in driving is due, in part, to it being seen as having a lower risk of COVID-19 infection. People because of the difficulties of social distancing on potentially crowded commutes.
A study in early March by an MIT economist by associating public transport in New York City with higher rates of COVID-19 infection. Unfortunately, the research had some . Health experts have since indicated there is little evidence public transport has been the source of any COIVD-19 infections.
Nevertheless, public transport agencies are in . In the US, experts are warning that, without large federal subsidies, public transport services are facing drastic cuts, which will impact where people live and work. Such shifts pose a of cities.
What is known about other transport modes? While comprehensive datasets are not available, evidence is emerging of the impacts on ride, bike and scooter sharing.
Ride sharing
As with all other transport modes, the pandemic has had big impacts on ride sharing. However some ride-sharing companies, like Uber, have diversified in recent years into areas such as food and freight delivery. These have provided much-needed during the ride-sharing downturn.
ride sharing will recover and continue to grow. This is due to need for personal mobility combined with and .
Bike sharing
Globally, transport officials are predicting a long-term surge in bicycle use. Cycling appears to be booming at the expense of public transport.
Beijing鈥檚 three largest bike share schemes reported a in use in May. In New York City, volumes . Bike sales in the US almost .
In response, many cities are providing more cycling infrastructure, with cities like leading the way with 鈥減op-up鈥� bike lanes. New Zealand has become the to fund so-called 鈥渢actical urbanism鈥�.
Melbourne has announced and is of bike lanes over the next two years. Sydney has added . Use of some Brisbane bikeways has , leading to criticism of delays in providing pop-up lanes.
intends to rapidly expand both cycling and walking infrastructure in anticipation of a ten-fold increase in bicycle use and a five-fold increase in pedestrians. This complements a (A$448 million) UK government program to reallocate more space for cyclists.
Paris plans to add in coming months. It鈥檚 also a 鈧�500 (A$818) subsidy to buy an electric bike and 鈧�50 to repair an existing bike.
Milan will add as part of its Strade Aperte Plan. The Italian government is providing a for people to buy a new bicycle.
We will have to wait to see whether all this interest translates into longer-term mode change.
E-scooters
E-scooter use has declined, as has the value of e-scooter companies. Lime, one of the larger companies, was valued at . Nevertheless, investor interest continues. Uber, Alphabet, GV and Bain and others put in May.
In Europe, ride-sharing company Bolt plans to expand its e-scooter and e-bike services to this year. Another positive sign for this mode is that the UK, where e-scooters have not been street legal, has begun .
It is still too early to predict the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on transport. What the data show is that driving has recovered and is even exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Current trends suggest active mobility 鈥� cycling, scooters and walking 鈥� may gain mode share. Whether public transport can recover is questionable, unless a vaccine becomes available.
, Honorary Professor of Planning,
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Image: Nick Rains/Getty Images
