Can a little bird tell us who will win in ?
Analysis of streams can provide clues to electoral outcomes, according to University of Queensland Masters research student Frances Manfield.
鈥淭raditionally we rely on opinion polls, and to some extent on betting, to predict the outcomes of elections,鈥� said Ms Manfield, who lives in the electorate and works as a consultant for a Brisbane-based communications agency.
鈥淭witter, because it is live and in real time, provides an ongoing, in-depth profile of what people are thinking.鈥�
Ms Manfield鈥檚 research supervisor, in 国产探花鈥檚 , said Twitter鈥檚 effectiveness in predicting election outcomes was not yet known.
鈥淥pinion polling is expensive, and provides only a snapshot,鈥� Dr Harrison said. 鈥淯sing sophisticated text analytics software to analyse high volumes of tweets gives us clues in real time about what the electorate is thinking.
鈥淎 couple of research projects have been undertaken 鈥� one in Germany and one in the UK 鈥� but these have been inconclusive, so this research is a world first.
鈥淥ne of the criticisms of analysing Twitter is that not everyone uses it. However, the huge volumes of tweets generated enable us to map the dynamics of interactions, and to undertake reliable sentiment analysis.
鈥淥pinion polling technique is also flawed. We know, for example, that younger voters are underrepresented in telephone surveys, and pollsters have to perform all sorts of statistical gymnastics to account for that. So the Twitter analysis provides us with an additional source of information.
Ms Manfield said it appeared social media was having a significant impact on the campaign.
鈥淭he ALP has been far more adroit in its use of social media, and I think this has been reflected in the closing gap between the ALP鈥檚 and the LNP鈥檚 ,鈥� she said.
鈥淲ith Twitter, we are getting authentic expressions of sentiment, we are finding out what people really think. With opinion polls, respondents are asked what they think; whereas tweeting is an action, and probably a much more accurate expression of opinion.鈥�
Ms Manfield鈥檚 project uses text analytics software being developed at The University of Queensland.
Comparing the Twitter presence of each of the leading candidates, Ms Manfield said Ms Jones had shown she was not afraid to attack Campbell Newman directly.
鈥� is impressive,鈥� Ms Manfield said. 鈥淗er tweets have become more personal, very Ashgrove-focused and link to a lot of . It can be argued that her recent rise in the polls is a result of this tactic.鈥�
In contrast, was stilted: it appeared his campaign team was not keen to engage fully with the social media tool.
鈥淢r Newman鈥檚 tweets 鈥� about 90 per cent of which are done on his behalf 鈥� are impersonal and usually just a tool for distributing micro press releases rather than engaging directly with the public or the opposition,鈥� Ms Manfield said.
鈥淚 would reason that his team is hesitant to engage in dialogue due to a fear of the 鈥榰ncontrollable鈥� aspect of Twitter and its users.鈥�
Media contacts: Frances Manfield, 0417 635 293; Dr John Harrison, 3346 8234
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Frances Manfield is a consultant at in Brisbane. She is undertaking a Master of Philosophy under the supervision of Dr John Harrison, Dr Dan Angus and Dr David Rooney at The University of Queensland. Ms Manfield holds a Bachelor of Arts, majoring in Political Science and International Relations, and a Graduate Diploma of Communication, majoring in Public Relations and Professional Communication. Prior to working at BBS she was a political staffer for two years at .
Twitter facts
鈥� Launched in 2006
鈥� Has 200 million followers (March 2011)
鈥� US President Barack Obama with nine million followers, currently ranks third in the world after music stars Lady Gaga (12 million) and Justin Bieber (11 million)
鈥� Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has nearly one million followers; Prime Minister Julia Gillard has 120,000 followers; former Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull 65,000 and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has 38,000.
鈥� Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has about 20,000 followers.
Memorable Tweets from Ashgrove
@salad1982 12 March 2012
Saw Campbell Newman jogging this morning in Ashgrove. He was surrounded by 5 men also jogging & wearing 'can-do' tshirts. One word: LOSER
@benpobjie 12 March 2012
"Most of those who support Campbell Newman are big celebrities from...OUT OF STATE"
@scotty_mcdonald (96.5 radio announcer) 12 March 2012
Does @Campbell_Newman financial interests matter THAT much to anyone other than Labor dirt diggers? #qldvotes
@gvandersee 11 March 2012
I see @TheQldPremier said that @Campbell_Newman looks like a house elf. That's not very nice Anna. #qldvotes #integrity
